Forecasting Science

Hurricane Forecasting

Satellites, numerical weather prediction, ensemble models, and the NHC advisory process: the complete science and technology of hurricane prediction.

5 days^a

NHC track & intensity outlook

Every 6 hrs^a

NHC advisory cycle

2 in 3^a

Forecasts that stay in the cone

50%+^b

Track-error drop since 1990

^a NOAA NHC^b NHC Forecast Verification

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Hurricane Dorian at Category 5 intensity imaged by the GOES-16 satellite

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How Hurricane Forecasting Works

From initial disturbance identification through cone of uncertainty to landfall warning, a complete explainer on the NHC forecast process and the technology behind it.

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Forecasting Science

The Cone of Uncertainty, Explained

What the NHC forecast cone really shows (the probable track of the storm's center, not its size or hazards), how it's built each year, and how to use it safely.

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