How Do Scientists Study Hurricanes?

How do we know a hurricane is coming days before it shows up? It takes a whole team: pilots, scientists, satellites, and supercomputers, all working around the clock. Some people fly airplanes right through the middle of a hurricane. Others watch it from space. And back on the ground, computers do billions of math problems to guess where the storm goes next. Let's meet them.

The Hurricane Hunters

Believe it or not, some people fly airplanes straight into hurricanes on purpose. They're called Hurricane Hunters, and they're some of the bravest crews you'll ever hear about. Two main teams take on the job.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron is part of the U.S. Air Force Reserve, based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi. These crews fly the WC-130J Super Hercules, a big, tough, four-engine plane built to handle wild turbulence. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been flying into storms since 1944. That makes them one of the longest-running weather missions ever.¹

But the very first flight into a hurricane on purpose came even earlier. On July 27, 1943, Lieutenant Colonel Joseph Duckworth flew a small single-engine AT-6 Texan trainer into a hurricane near Galveston, Texas. People thought he was out of his mind. Instead, he proved a plane could survive inside a hurricane and bring back real data. That one flight changed weather science forever.

NOAA's Hurricane Hunters

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) flies into hurricanes too. Its crews use P-3 Orion turboprop planes and a Gulfstream IV-SP jet. The P-3 Orions punch through the storm itself. The Gulfstream jet flies high around the outside, studying the air all around the hurricane.

What Happens on a Mission?

A Hurricane Hunter mission lasts about 10 hours. In that time, the crew flies through the eyewall, the ring of the fiercest thunderstorms around the calm eye, again and again. The ride is rough. Picture the wildest roller coaster you've ever been on, then multiply it by ten. Everyone straps in tight and holds on.

One of their biggest jobs is dropping dropsondes. A dropsonde is a little instrument tube, about the size of a paper towel roll, that floats down on a tiny parachute. As it falls through the storm, it measures temperature, humidity, air pressure, and wind, and radios it all back to the plane. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center need that data to tell how strong the storm is and to sharpen their computer models.² We lean on those dropsonde readings more than almost anything else, because there's simply no other way to measure the air deep inside a storm.

Satellites in Space

Way up above Earth, weather satellites keep a constant eye on the sky. They're like giant cameras in space, and they're the best way to track a hurricane out over the open ocean, where planes and ships can't easily reach.

Satellites That Hover in One Spot

NOAA runs a set of satellites called GOES, short for Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. The two main ones right now are GOES-16 (also called GOES-East) and GOES-18 (GOES-West). They orbit 22,236 miles (35,786 km) above Earth.³ Way up there, they move at the exact same speed the Earth spins, so they stay parked over the same spot all the time. That's what "geostationary" means: it stays still compared to the ground.

Because they hover over one place, GOES satellites can snap a picture of the same area every 1 to 10 minutes.³ So scientists get to watch a hurricane grow and move almost like a movie. These satellites see cloud patterns, measure how cold the cloud tops are, and even estimate wind speeds.

Satellites That Circle the Earth

Another kind of weather satellite flies much lower. Polar-orbiting satellites, like NOAA-20 and the ones in the JPSS (Joint Polar Satellite System) program, orbit about 512 miles (824 km) up. Instead of parking in one spot, they loop the Earth from pole to pole and pass over each place about twice a day. Because they're so much closer, they can see finer details than the high satellites can.

How It All Started

The very first weather satellite was TIROS-1, launched on April 1, 1960. For the first time ever, scientists could photograph clouds from space. Before that, a hurricane out over the open ocean was basically invisible, unless a ship happened to sail right into it. Storms could reach the coast with almost no warning. Satellites changed all of it. Today no hurricane can form anywhere on Earth without being spotted.

Ocean Buoys and Underwater Sensors

Hurricanes run on warm ocean water, so keeping tabs on the ocean is a huge part of hurricane science. Scientists use a fleet of floating instruments to watch the sea day and night.

Weather Buoys

NOAA keeps a network of weather buoys across the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. Each one is a floating weather station. It measures sea temperature, wave height, air pressure, and wind, then beams that up to a satellite, which passes it to forecasters on land. Some buoys are moored, anchored to the ocean floor so they stay put. Others drift freely with the currents, taking readings wherever the water carries them.

Argo Floats

One of the coolest ocean tools is the Argo float. There are more than 4,000 of these robot floats spread across the world's oceans. Each one dives down to about 6,500 feet (2,000 m), drifting and measuring the ocean's temperature and how salty it is. After about 10 days, it rises back up and beams its data to a satellite. Then it dives again, over and over, for years.

Why does this matter for hurricanes? Because warm water is a hurricane's fuel. The ocean has to be at least 80°F (26.5°C) for a storm to form and grow. By measuring the water temperature deep down, not just at the surface, scientists can spot where a storm might blow up in strength. If a hurricane rolls over a pool of warm water that runs deep, it can get much stronger, fast.

The National Hurricane Center

All the data, from the Hurricane Hunters, satellites, buoys, and more, flows into one very important place: the National Hurricane Center, or NHC. It sits in Miami, Florida, on the campus of Florida International University.

The NHC is part of NOAA's National Weather Service. During hurricane season, June 1 through November 30, it runs 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The hurricane specialists there are some of the most experienced weather scientists in the world. Their job is to take all the satellite images, radar, plane reports, buoy readings, and computer models, and turn them into one official forecast.

Forecasts, Watches, and Warnings

The NHC makes the official forecasts for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific oceans. A forecast tells people where a hurricane is heading, how strong it might get, and when it could arrive. When a storm threatens land, the NHC issues watches (hurricane conditions possible within 48 hours) and warnings (hurricane conditions expected within 36 hours).

The Forecast Cone

You've probably seen the "forecast cone" on TV during a storm. Some people call it the "cone of uncertainty." It shows where the center of the hurricane will probably go over the next five days. The cone starts narrow and gets wider, because the further ahead you try to guess, the less sure the forecast is.

Here's an opinion we'll stand behind: the cone is the most misread picture in all of weather. The cone shows only where the center might travel. It does not show where the danger stops. A hurricane's wind, rain, and storm surge reach far outside the cone, so being outside the line does not mean you're safe.

Computer Models and Forecasting

Modern hurricane forecasting leans hard on powerful computers. Scientists run big programs called numerical weather prediction models. These programs use math and physics to act out how the air will move in the days ahead.

The Big Hurricane Models

A few important models forecast hurricanes. The GFS (Global Forecast System) is run by NOAA in the United States. The European model, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), is run from Reading, England, and it's considered one of the best in the world. There's also the HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model), built just for hurricanes and their fine details.

How Models Work

These models chop the whole atmosphere into millions of tiny 3-D boxes. For each box, the computer works out the temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind, then figures out what happens a few seconds later. It repeats that step again and again, marching forward in time, until it's built a forecast several days out. It takes staggering computing power. The fastest weather computers do quadrillions of calculations every second.

Why Models Sometimes Disagree

Watch hurricane coverage and you might hear about "spaghetti models," maps that show the predicted paths from many models at once. The lines really do look like noodles on a plate. Different models sometimes disagree about where a storm will go or how strong it'll get. Forecasters use their training and experience to judge which models are doing best for that storm, then make the official call.

Forecasts Are Getting Better

Now for some great news. Hurricane track forecasts have gotten far more accurate over the years. By the National Hurricane Center's own numbers, the average 48-hour track error has been cut roughly in half since the year 2000.² So the spot where forecasters expect the center in two days is much closer to right than it used to be.

But we'll be honest about the hard part. Guessing how strong a hurricane will get is still much tougher than guessing where it will go. A storm can blow up in strength in a single day, and that jump is the thing forecasters lose the most sleep over. It's the biggest puzzle left in hurricane science, and we haven't solved it yet.

Hurricane Science Careers

If hurricane science sounds exciting to you, you're right. Lots of different careers study these storms and keep people safe. Here are a few.

• Meteorologist: a scientist who studies weather and the atmosphere. It takes a college degree in meteorology or atmospheric science. They work at weather offices, TV stations, and research labs.
• Hurricane Specialist: the expert forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. It takes years of forecasting experience and a deep grasp of tropical weather.
• Hurricane Hunter Flight Crew: the pilots, navigators, weather officers, and loadmasters who fly into storms. They need special military or aviation training, and nerves for heavy turbulence.
• Research Scientist: these scientists study how hurricanes work, hunt for patterns in the data, and build better forecasting methods. Many work at universities or government labs.
• Emergency Manager: they use the forecasts to protect towns, planning evacuations, opening shelters, and organizing help before, during, and after a storm.
• Broadcast Meteorologist: the forecasters you see on TV or follow online. Their job is to explain the weather so clearly that everyone understands it and stays safe.

Love science, math, or helping people? There might be a hurricane career waiting for you. The work these people do gives families the warning time that keeps them safe.

From Watching Storms to Making One

All these tools, the planes, the satellites, the buoys, the supercomputers, add up to one thing: warning time. A hurricane you can see coming is a hurricane you can prepare for.

Now that you know how the pros study a storm, try being the scientist yourself. Head to Make Your Own Hurricane for experiments you can do at home, or go back to the basics with What Is a Hurricane?.

Sources

1. 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron. Hurricane Hunters Fact Sheet. U.S. Air Force Reserve Command. https://www.403wg.afrc.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/ ↩

2. NOAA National Hurricane Center. NHC Forecast Verification. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/ ↩ ↩²

3. NOAA Satellite and Information Service. GOES Overview. https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/current-satellite-missions/currently-flying/goes ↩ ↩²